Tuesday, September 25, 2012

What is QE3, and what does it mean for the US Dollar?


On September 13, 2012, Ben Bernanke announced that the Fed will employ QE3 indefinitely until we see significant improvement in the labor market.  Well, what is QE3 exactly? QE3 literally means the third round of Quantitative Easing.  QE is just a fancy way of saying that more $$$ will be in circulation.  Law of Supply says that an increase in supply will result in a decrease in price.  In this case, a decrease in the price of the USD, aka depreciation.

So, the purpose of QE is to lower interest rates (increase in currency supply also results in lower interest rates, again, Law of Supply).  Lower interest rates will make it more affordable for consumers to borrow money to spend money.  Domestic consumer spending is a major component of GDP- see equation below.

Y = C + I + G + (X-M), where:

Y = GDP
C = Consumption (aka consumer spending)
I = Investment
G = Government spending
X = Exports
M = Imports

In theory, increased spending boosts the economy (illustrated by the above equation). In this case, the QE is tied to the labor and housing markets.  My concern is, is all of this worth depreciating the Dollar, especially right now when the Euro is struggling…with the added risk of inflation and higher prices of goods.

On the plus side, there will be additional liquidity in the markets and a lower USD value should increase exports (since the Dollar is cheaper, US products will be less expensive to the rest of the world), thus increasing US GDP (also illustrated by the above equation).  However, with globalization and the high correlation of world markets, most of our trading partners will also be experiencing a slowdown.  So even with a cheap Dollar, who’s buying?

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

China’s Declining Growth- Good or Bad For The U.S.?


This post is based off of an article, “Understanding The China Slowdown” by Dexter Roberts that I read in the June 4-June 10, 2012 edition of Bloomberg BusinessWeek.  In the article, Roberts describes China’s recent declines in growth.  It’s obvious that China is very concerned about their growth, given multiple announcement about maintaining growth by their high ranking government officials.  China has stated that they will try to spur growth the following ways:
  • Infrastructure projects
  • Encouraging private investments
  • Subsidizing energy-efficient consumer purchases
  • Expanding airports into other provinces
China is also considering a $315 billion stimulus, but claim they are careful not to overspend like they did 3 years ago.  According to Credit Suisse, China will grow less than 7% this quarter, even less if Greece decides to drop the Euro (see my last blog post for my thoughts on Greece).

So what does all this mean for the U.S.?  Is it a good or bad thing?  Well, I’m sure there are both sides of the coin, but I personally think it would hurt the U.S. more than help.

Why?

Well, China is the world’s biggest holder of foreign reserves.  Also, China’s slowdown in growth will curb China’s demand for U.S. exports.  Believe it or not, U.S. exports to China has skyrocketed 542% from 2000-2011.  Given the U.S. current account deficit, any decrease in U.S. exports is a bad thing.  Also, China could become more lenient in its monetary policy and allow its currency to depreciate against the USD, which would hurt the U.S. export market even further.

On the bright side, a Chinese conglomerate, Dalian Wanda Group, recently bought the second largest movie theater chain in the U.S., AMC.  Grab your popcorn, the future headlines regarding the global economy is sure to keep you on the edge of your seat!

Sources:
Roberts, Dexter. "Understanding The China Slowdown." Bloomberg Businessweek 4-10 June 2012: 8-9

Monday, May 28, 2012

Greece: Should I stay or should I go?


It’s Memorial Day in the U.S., but the other world markets are busy today.  Things are looking up for Greece as voters are leaning towards the pro-bailout parties…meaning Greece will have a good chance of staying in the Euro.

Should Greece stay part of the Euro currency?  This is the question that has been hotly debated across the blogosphere the past few weeks.

This one says YES, stay with the Euro

This one says NO, Greece shouldn’t have been part of the Euro in the first place…

And this one says even if Greece DID exit the Euro, it wouldn’t solve Europe’s problems, so there is essentially no point.

What do I think?  Well, you  know how there are marriages with prenups?  That’s what this is.  The Euro Zone married Greece with a prenup.  It’s like Greece is stuck in a marriage she doesn’t really WANT to be in anymore, but if she leaves, she’ll be left with NOTHING.  Except a worthless currency and high inflation.  I think devastating consequences aside, if Greece could safely exit the Euro, and there were reserves of Drachma ready (and the Drachma was actually worth something), this wouldn’t even be an issue.  Greece would exit and the Euro Zone could focus its efforts on something else…like Spain.

Maybe Keynes’ Bancor idea needs to be revisited…